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CHECKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS
Edited by
Henry Sokolski
Patrick Clawson
January 2004
*****
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not
necessarily rel ect the ofi cial policy or position of the Department of the Army, the
Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public
release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This book is the result of nearly 2 years of planning and analyses commissioned
by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) to reconsider U.S.
efforts to arrest Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. It received support from
several organizations including The Smith Richardson Foundation and the U.S.
Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Robert “Robin” Dorff, Douglas
Lovelace, and Marianne Cowling worked closely with NPEC to assure the book’s
production. The most important acknowledgement must be made, however, to
the book’s authors and to the project’s co-chairman, Patrick Clawson who helped
guide their research. Finally, a special word of thanks is due to Carly Kinsella,
the center’s research coordinator and Albert Wohlstetter Fellow. Only with her
tireless help and that of the Strategic Studies Institute, could this volume have
made it into print.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded
to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes
Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from the
Publications Ofi ce by calling (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or by e-mail at
Rita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI
Homepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is:
http://
www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to
update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent
and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the
Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our
research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let us
know by e-mail at
outreach@carlisle.army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.
ISBN 1-58487-149-0
ii
CONTENTS
Preface
Patrick Clawson
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Introduction
Henry Sokolski
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
1. Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Report Recommendations
NPEC Project on Iran
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. Iran’s “Legal” Paths to the Bomb
Victor Gilinsky
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. Iran’s Internal Struggles
Geneive Abdo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
39
4. The Prospects for Regime Change in Iran
S. Rob Sobhani
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5. Winning Iranian Hearts and Minds
Abbas William Samii
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
6. U.S.-Iranian Strategic Cooperation since 1979
Geoffrey Kemp
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
7. The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action
Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
iii
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CHECKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS
Edited by
Henry Sokolski
Patrick Clawson
January 2004
*****
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not
necessarily rel ect the ofi cial policy or position of the Department of the Army, the
Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public
release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This book is the result of nearly 2 years of planning and analyses commissioned
by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) to reconsider U.S.
efforts to arrest Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. It received support from
several organizations including The Smith Richardson Foundation and the U.S.
Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Robert “Robin” Dorff, Douglas
Lovelace, and Marianne Cowling worked closely with NPEC to assure the book’s
production. The most important acknowledgement must be made, however, to
the book’s authors and to the project’s co-chairman, Patrick Clawson who helped
guide their research. Finally, a special word of thanks is due to Carly Kinsella,
the center’s research coordinator and Albert Wohlstetter Fellow. Only with her
tireless help and that of the Strategic Studies Institute, could this volume have
made it into print.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded
to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes
Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from the
Publications Ofi ce by calling (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or by e-mail at
Rita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI
Homepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is:
http://
www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to
update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent
and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the
Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our
research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let us
know by e-mail at
outreach@carlisle.army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.
ISBN 1-58487-149-0
ii
CONTENTS
Preface
Patrick Clawson
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Introduction
Henry Sokolski
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
1. Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Report Recommendations
NPEC Project on Iran
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. Iran’s “Legal” Paths to the Bomb
Victor Gilinsky
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. Iran’s Internal Struggles
Geneive Abdo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
39
4. The Prospects for Regime Change in Iran
S. Rob Sobhani
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5. Winning Iranian Hearts and Minds
Abbas William Samii
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
6. U.S.-Iranian Strategic Cooperation since 1979
Geoffrey Kemp
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
7. The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action
Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
iii
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