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GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRAN
Edited by
Henry Sokolski
Patrick Clawson
October 2005
Visit our website for other free publication downloads
*****
The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of
Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution
is unlimited.
*****
This book has been 2 years in the making and has benefited from the financial
backing of both private foundations and the U.S. Department of Defense. It would not
have been possible, however, without the expertise and guidance of several individuals.
The first and most important among these is Patrick Clawson who, as co-editor, was
instrumental in identifying both the topics and authors of the commissioned research
that makes up this volume’s chapters.
Also critical was the editorial assistance of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic
Studies Institute. The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) has worked
closely with Dr. Douglas Lovelace, Ms. Marianne Cowling, and Ms. Rita Rummel at
the Institute. This volume constitutes our organizations’ fifth successful collaboration.
Michael Eisenstadt, the author of Chapter 10, “Deter And Contain: Dealing With
A Nuclear Iran,” would like to thank Jeff Cary, Brock Dahl, and Ryan Phillips for their
invaluable research assistance in preparing his chapter.
Finally and most important, has been the good patience of the book’s authors in
updating their essays and of NPEC’s Deputy Executive Director, Amanda Sokolski,
my wife; and our assistant, Mohammad Nasseri-Asl, in pulling it all together. Without
their hard work and good humor there would have been nothing to publish.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to:
Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle,
PA 17013-5244.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage
for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our
Homepage. SSI’s Homepage address is:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the
national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming
publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also
provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested
in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at
SSI_Newsletter@carlisle.
army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.
ISBN 1-58487-211-X
ii
CONTENTS
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Part I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
1. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran:
Report of the NPEC Working Group
Henry Sokolski
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Part II. Tehran’s Nuclear Endeavors: What’s the Worry? . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
2. Arab Security Responses to a Nuclear-Ready Iran
Richard L. Russell
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. The Nuclear Capabilities and Ambitions of Iran’s Neighbors
Wyn Q. Bowen and Joanna Kidd
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4. Turkey, Iran and Nuclear Risks
Ian O. Lesser
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
5. The Day after Iran Gets the Bomb
Kenneth R. Timmerman
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Part III. Is There a Simple Military or Sanctions Fix?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
6. Is the Begin Doctrine Still a Viable Option for Israel?
Shlomo Brom
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7. Strategy for a Nuclear Iran
Thomas Donnelly
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
8. Iran Gets the Bomb―Then What?
George Perkovich, with Silvia Manzanero
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Part IV. Further Courses of Action
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
9. Reducing Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz
Dagobert Brito and Amy Myers Jaffe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
10. Deter and Contain: Dealing with a Nuclear Iran
Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
11. Managing the Iranian Threat to Sea Commerce Diplomatically
Douglas E. Streusand
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
12. What Transatlantic Strategy on Iran?
Thérèse Delpech
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
309
iii
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GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRAN
Edited by
Henry Sokolski
Patrick Clawson
October 2005
Visit our website for other free publication downloads
*****
The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of
Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution
is unlimited.
*****
This book has been 2 years in the making and has benefited from the financial
backing of both private foundations and the U.S. Department of Defense. It would not
have been possible, however, without the expertise and guidance of several individuals.
The first and most important among these is Patrick Clawson who, as co-editor, was
instrumental in identifying both the topics and authors of the commissioned research
that makes up this volume’s chapters.
Also critical was the editorial assistance of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic
Studies Institute. The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) has worked
closely with Dr. Douglas Lovelace, Ms. Marianne Cowling, and Ms. Rita Rummel at
the Institute. This volume constitutes our organizations’ fifth successful collaboration.
Michael Eisenstadt, the author of Chapter 10, “Deter And Contain: Dealing With
A Nuclear Iran,” would like to thank Jeff Cary, Brock Dahl, and Ryan Phillips for their
invaluable research assistance in preparing his chapter.
Finally and most important, has been the good patience of the book’s authors in
updating their essays and of NPEC’s Deputy Executive Director, Amanda Sokolski,
my wife; and our assistant, Mohammad Nasseri-Asl, in pulling it all together. Without
their hard work and good humor there would have been nothing to publish.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to:
Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle,
PA 17013-5244.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage
for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our
Homepage. SSI’s Homepage address is:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the
national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming
publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also
provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested
in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at
SSI_Newsletter@carlisle.
army.mil
or by calling (717) 245-3133.
ISBN 1-58487-211-X
ii
CONTENTS
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Part I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
1. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran:
Report of the NPEC Working Group
Henry Sokolski
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Part II. Tehran’s Nuclear Endeavors: What’s the Worry? . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
2. Arab Security Responses to a Nuclear-Ready Iran
Richard L. Russell
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. The Nuclear Capabilities and Ambitions of Iran’s Neighbors
Wyn Q. Bowen and Joanna Kidd
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4. Turkey, Iran and Nuclear Risks
Ian O. Lesser
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
5. The Day after Iran Gets the Bomb
Kenneth R. Timmerman
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Part III. Is There a Simple Military or Sanctions Fix?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
6. Is the Begin Doctrine Still a Viable Option for Israel?
Shlomo Brom
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7. Strategy for a Nuclear Iran
Thomas Donnelly
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
8. Iran Gets the Bomb―Then What?
George Perkovich, with Silvia Manzanero
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Part IV. Further Courses of Action
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
9. Reducing Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz
Dagobert Brito and Amy Myers Jaffe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
10. Deter and Contain: Dealing with a Nuclear Iran
Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
11. Managing the Iranian Threat to Sea Commerce Diplomatically
Douglas E. Streusand
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
12. What Transatlantic Strategy on Iran?
Thérèse Delpech
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
309
iii
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